• “Winning Elections with Unpopular Policies: Valence Advantage and Single-Party Dominance in Japan” (with Shiro Kuriwaki and Daniel M. Smith). Quarterly Journal of Political Science, forthcoming. [SSRN]
• “U.S. Military Should Not Be in My Backyard: Conjoint Experiments in Japan” (with Atsushi Tago). Journal of Conflict Resolution 68(9): 1798-1824. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Social Contact and Attitudes toward Outsiders: The Case of Japan” (with Yoshikuni Ono). Research & Politics 10(1), January 2023. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Revisiting Negative Externalities of U.S. Military Bases: The Case of Okinawa” (with Takako Hikotani and Atsushi Tago). International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, Vol. 23, Issue 2, pp. 325-349, May 2023. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Susceptibility to Threatening Information and Opposition to Refugee Resettlement: The Case of Japan” (with Yoshikuni Ono). Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 60, Issue 3, pp. 459-473, May 2023. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Young Citizens’ Civic Engagement and Civic Attitudes: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis” (with Hiroto Katsumata and Ethan Woodard). Political Behavior, Vol. 45, pp. 265-284, March 2023. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package] [SharedIt]
• “Country Risks and Brain Drain: The Emigration Potential of Japanese Skilled Workers” (with Nana Oishi). Social Science Japan Journal, Vol. 25, Issue 1, pp. 55-82, Winter 2022. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Identifying Voter Preferences for Politicians’ Personal Attributes: A Conjoint Experiment in Japan” (with Daniel Smith and Teppei Yamamoto). Political Science Research and Methods, Vol. 8, Issue 1, pp. 75-91, January 2020. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “America’s Role in the Making of Japan’s Economic Miracle” (with Michael Beckley and Jennifer M. Miller). Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 18, Issue 1, pp. 1-21, March 2018. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “No Sorting, No Advantage: Regression Discontinuity Estimates of Incumbency Advantage in Japan” (with Kenichi Ariga, Roland Mansilla, and Michio Umeda). Electoral Studies, Vol. 43, pp. 21-31, September 2016. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Removing Boundaries, Losing Connections: Electoral Consequences of Local Government Reform in Japan” (with Jun Saito and Kyohei Yamada). Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 15, No 1, pp. 99-125, January-April 2015. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Making Outsiders’ Votes Count: Detecting Electoral Fraud through a Natural Experiment” (with Kentaro Fukumoto). American Political Science Review, Vol. 105, Issue 3, pp. 586-603, August 2011. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Cultivating Rice and Votes: Institutional Origins of Agricultural Protectionism in Japan” (with Jun Saito). Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 425-452, September-December 2010. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Understanding Japanese Politics from a Local Perspective.” International Political Science Review, Vol. 30, No. 5, pp. 565-573, November 2009. [SSRN] [DOI] * There is no replication package for this paper.
• “Reapportionment and Redistribution: Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan” (with Jun Saito). American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 47, Issue 4, pp. 669-682, October 2003. *Received the Alan Rosenthal Prize from the Legislative Studies Section of the American Political Science Association. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]

Also, see:

Foreign/Global Public Opinion

• “Does Russian Election Interference Damage Support for U.S. Alliances? The Case of Japan” (with Benjamin E. Goldsmith). European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 29, Issue 2, pp. 427–448, June 2023. [SSRN] [SocArXiv] [DOI] [Replication Package] [Press Release]
• “Has Trump Damaged the U.S. Image Abroad? Decomposing the Effects of Policy Messages on Foreign Public Opinion” (with Alexander Agadjanian). Political Behavior, Vol. 42, pp. 581-602, June 2020. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package] [Press Release]

Elections

• “Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment of Political Budget Cycle” (with Kentaro Fukumoto and Shoichiro Tanaka). Electoral Studies, Vol. 67, October 2020. [SSRN][DOI][Replication Package]
• “Identifying the Effect of Mobilization on Voter Turnout through a Natural Experiment” (with Kentaro Fukumoto). Electoral Studies, Vol. 44, pp. 192-202, December 2016. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]

Political Methodology

• “Measuring Voters’ Multidimensional Policy Preferences with Conjoint Analysis: Application to Japan’s 2014 Election” (with Daniel Smith and Teppei Yamamoto). Political Analysis, Vol. 26, Issue 2, pp. 190-209, April 2018. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Designing and Analyzing Randomized Experiments: Application to a Japanese Election Survey Experiment” (with Kosuke Imai and Naoko Taniguchi). American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 51, Issue 3, pp. 669-687, July 2007. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]

• “Disclosing Invisible Attributes Leads to Discrimination” (with Kai Zhou). [SSRN] – Under Review, R&R
• “Civilian Control and Casualty Sensitivity in a Pacifist Democracy: Evidence from Japan’s 2021 Evacuation Mission” (with Atsushi Tago) [SSRN] – Under Review

• “The Pretty Pragmatic Public: Japanese Public Opinion about Security Policies” (with Atsushi Tago) — A book manuscript in preparation

Institutions, Incentives and Electoral Participation in Japan
Cross-Level and Cross-National Perspectives

• 2005 Routledge
• ISBN: 9780415648592

• “実験政治学で分析する選挙と事件　正確な報道こそが陰謀論なくす” [Elections and Incidents Analyzed by Experimental Political Science: Accurate Reporting Eliminates Conspiracy Theories]. Nikkei Business, August 1, 2022.
• “事件と選挙と報道　データに基づく政治学” [Incidents, Elections, and the Press: Data-based Political Science]. Nikkei Business Online, July 13, 2022.
• “マーケティング視点の政治学　なぜ自民党は勝ち続けるのか” [Political Science from a Marketing Perspective: Why the LDP Keeps Winning]. Nikkei Business, December 27, 2021.
• “外交・安保政策の針路（下）世論の的確な把握 大前提” [The Path Forward for Foreign and Security Policy (2) Accurate Understanding of Public Opinion is a Prerequisite] (with Atsushi Tago). Nihon Keizai Shimbun, December 10, 2021.
• “マニフェスト選挙を疑え：2021年総選挙の計量政治学” [Doubt the ‘Manifesto Election’: Quantitative Analysis of the 2021 General Election]. Nikkei Business Online, December 8, 2021.
• “Detecting Electoral Fraud in Japan.” East Asia Forum, April 18, 2015.
• “衆議院総選挙、緊急解析！データが明らかにした有権者の本音” [Urgent Analysis of General Elections! Voters’ True Preferences Revealed by Data] (with Dan Smith, Teppei Yamamoto, and Mayumi Fukushima). Nikkei Business Online, December 19, 2014.
• “やばい政治学：データで分かる政治の裏表” [Data Analysis of Politics Revealing Hidden Problems] (with Kentaro Fukumoto), Nikkei Business Online, June 5, June 12, June 19, June 26, July 3, 2012.
• “選挙前の不正な住民票移動の真相に迫る” [Getting to the Bottom of the Pre-electoral Illegal Residential Registration]. Nikkei Business Online, December 19, 2011.
• “市町村合併、政治的問題も” [Political Problems of Municipal Amalgamation] (with Masaru Kohno). Nihon Keizai Shimbun, December 23, 2003.

Also, see:

Foreign Public Opinion

• “Since Trump’s election, the U.S. image abroad has plummeted. But is it really just about Trump?” (with Alexander Agadjanian). The Washington Post, The Monkey Cage, December 19, 2018.