PROJECT INFO.
- KEYWORDS: electoral reform, local politics, economic growth, electoral fraud, etc.
- COLLABORATORS: Jun Saito, Daniel M. Smith, etc.
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HIGHLIGHTS:
- "America's Role in the Making of Japan's Economic Miracle" (with Michael Beckley and Jennifer M. Miller). Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 18, Issue 1, pp. 1-21, March 2018.
- “Making Outsiders’ Votes Count: Detecting Electoral Fraud through a Natural Experiment” (with Kentaro Fukumoto). American Political Science Review, Vol. 105, Issue 3, pp. 586-603, August 2011.
- “Reapportionment and Redistribution: Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan” (with Jun Saito). American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 47, Issue 4, pp. 669-682, October 2003.
Book
1st Edition
Institutions, Incentives and Electoral Participation in Japan
Cross-Level and Cross-National Perspectives
- 2005 Routledge
- ISBN: 9780415648592
Book Description
American and European political scientists have claimed that subnational elections almost always record lower voter turnout than national elections. In Japan, however, municipal elections often record considerably higher turnout than national elections, particularly in small towns and villages. Institutions, Incentives and Electoral Participation in Japan theoretically and empirically explores this puzzling ‘turnout twist’ phenomenon from comparative perspectives. Based on the rational-choice approach, the book hypothesizes that relative voter turnout in subnational vs. national elections is determined by the relative magnitudes of how much is at stake (‘election significance’) and how much votes count (‘vote significance’) in these elections.
Reviews
‘Unquestionably a major contribution to the literature on political participation … an important work in comparative politics.’ – Japanese Journal of Political Science
Published Articles
- “Young Citizens’ Civic Engagement and Civic Attitudes: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis” (with Hiroto Katsumata and Ethan Woodard). Political Behavior, forthcoming. [SSRN][DOI][Replication Package]
- “Identifying Voter Preferences for Politicians’ Personal Attributes: A Conjoint Experiment in Japan” (with Daniel Smith and Teppei Yamamoto). Political Science Research and Methods, Vol. 8, Issue 1, pp. 75-91, January 2020. [SSRN][DOI][Replication Package]
- “America’s Role in the Making of Japan’s Economic Miracle” (with Michael Beckley and Jennifer M. Miller). Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 18, Issue 1, pp. 1-21, March 2018. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “No Sorting, No Advantage: Regression Discontinuity Estimates of Incumbency Advantage in Japan” (with Kenichi Ariga, Roland Mansilla, and Michio Umeda). Electoral Studies, Vol. 43, pp. 21-31, September 2016. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “Removing Boundaries, Losing Connections: Electoral Consequences of Local Government Reform in Japan” (with Jun Saito and Kyohei Yamada). Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 15, No 1, pp. 99-125, January-April 2015. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “Making Outsiders’ Votes Count: Detecting Electoral Fraud through a Natural Experiment” (with Kentaro Fukumoto). American Political Science Review, Vol. 105, Issue 3, pp. 586-603, August 2011. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “Cultivating Rice and Votes: Institutional Origins of Agricultural Protectionism in Japan” (with Jun Saito). Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 425-452, September-December 2010. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “Understanding Japanese Politics from a Local Perspective.” International Political Science Review, Vol. 30, No. 5, pp. 565-573, November 2009. [SSRN] [DOI] * There is no replication package for this paper.
- “Reapportionment and Redistribution: Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan” (with Jun Saito). American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 47, Issue 4, pp. 669-682, October 2003. *Received the Alan Rosenthal Prize from the Legislative Studies Section of the American Political Science Association. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
Also, see:
Elections
- “Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment of Political Budget Cycle” (with Kentaro Fukumoto and Shoichiro Tanaka). Electoral Studies, Vol. 67, October 2020. [SSRN][DOI][Replication Package]
- “Identifying the Effect of Mobilization on Voter Turnout through a Natural Experiment” (with Kentaro Fukumoto). Electoral Studies, Vol. 44, pp. 192-202, December 2016. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
Foreign Public Opinion
- “Has Trump Damaged the U.S. Image Abroad? Decomposing the Effects of Policy Messages on Foreign Public Opinion” (with Alexander Agadjanian). Political Behavior, Vol. 42, Issue 2, pp. 581-602, April 2020. [SSRN][DOI][Replication Package][Press Release]
Political Methodology
- “Measuring Voters’ Multidimensional Policy Preferences with Conjoint Analysis: Application to Japan’s 2014 Election” (with Daniel Smith and Teppei Yamamoto). Political Analysis, Vol. 26, Issue 2, pp. 190-209, April 2018. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
Working Papers
- “Country Risks and Brain Drain: The Emigration Potentials of Japanese Skilled Workers” (with Nana Oishi). [SSRN] — R&R
- “U.S. Military Should Not Be in My Backyard: The Case of Okinawa” (with Takako Hikotani and Atsushi Tago). [SSRN] — Under Review
Also, see:
Foreign Public Opinion
- “Does Russian Election Interference Damage Support for U.S. Alliances?” (with Benjamin E. Goldsmith) [SSRN]
Diversity
- “Susceptibility to Threatening Information and Opposition to Refugee Resettlement” (with Yoshikuni Ono) [SSRN] — R&R
Work in Progress
- “Japanese Public Opinion on Self Defense Forces and Security Policies” (with Takako Hikotani and Atsushi Tago)
Also, see:
Political Methodology
- “Are Voters’ Decisions Consistent with Their Policy Preferences?” (with Shiro Kuriwaki and Daniel M. Smith)
Other Topics
- “Politician Incivility and Apologies” (with Jennifer Wu)
Media
- “Detecting Electoral Fraud in Japan.” East Asia Forum, April 18, 2015.
- “衆議院総選挙、緊急解析！データが明らかにした有権者の本音” [Urgent Analysis of General Elections!~Voters’ True Preferences Revealed by Data] (with Dan Smith, Teppei Yamamoto, and Mayumi Fukushima). Nikkei Business Online, December 19, 2014.
- “やばい政治学：データで分かる政治の裏表” [Data Analysis of Politics Revealing Hidden Problems] (with Kentaro Fukumoto), Nikkei Business Online, June 5, June 12, June 19, June 26, July 3, 2012.
- “選挙前の不正な住民票移動の真相に迫る” [Getting to the Bottom of the Pre-electoral Illegal Residential Registration]. Nikkei Business Online, December 19, 2011.
- “市町村合併、政治的問題も” [Political Problems of Municipal Amalgamation] (with Masaru Kohno). Nihon Keizai Shimbun, December 23, 2003.
Also, see:
Foreign Public Opinion
- “Since Trump’s election, the U.S. image abroad has plummeted. But is it really just about Trump?” (with Alexander Agadjanian). The Washington Post, The Monkey Cage, December 19, 2018.