Elections

• “Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment of Political Budget Cycle” (with Kentaro Fukumoto and Shoichiro Tanaka). Electoral Studies, Vol. 67, October 2020. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Why Should the Republicans Pray for Rain? Electoral Consequences of Rainfall Revisited” (with Woo Chang Kang). American Politics Research, Vol. 46, Issue 5, pp. 868-889, September 2018. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package][Press Release]
• “Compulsory Voting and Income Inequality: Evidence for Lijphart’s Proposition from Venezuela” (with John M. Carey). Latin American Politics and Society, Vol. 59, No. 2, pp. 122-144, Summer 2017. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Identifying the Effect of Mobilization on Voter Turnout through a Natural Experiment” (with Kentaro Fukumoto). Electoral Studies, Vol. 44, pp. 192-202, December 2016. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “The Presidency, Regionalism and Distributive Politics in South Korea” (with Seungjoo Lee). Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 41, Issue 6, pp. 861-882, June 2008. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Malapportionment and Income Inequality: A Cross-National Analysis.” British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 34, Part 1, pp. 179-183, January 2004. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]

Also, see: 

Japanese Politics

• “Young Citizens’ Civic Engagement and Civic Attitudes: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis” (with Hiroto Katsumata and Ethan Woodard). Political Behavior, forthcoming. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package] [SharedIt]
• “Identifying Voter Preferences for Politicians’ Personal Attributes: A Conjoint Experiment in Japan” (with Daniel Smith and Teppei Yamamoto). Political Science Research and Methods, Vol. 8, Issue 1, pp. 75-91, January 2020. [SSRN][DOI][Replication Package]
• “No Sorting, No Advantage: Regression Discontinuity Estimates of Incumbency Advantage in Japan” (with Kenichi Ariga, Roland Mansilla, and Michio Umeda). Electoral Studies, Vol. 43, pp. 21-31, September 2016. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Removing Boundaries, Losing Connections: Electoral Consequences of Local Government Reform in Japan” (with Jun Saito and Kyohei Yamada). Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 15, No 1, pp. 99-125, January-April 2015. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Making Outsiders’ Votes Count: Detecting Electoral Fraud through a Natural Experiment” (with Kentaro Fukumoto). American Political Science Review, Vol. 105, Issue 3, pp. 586-603, August 2011. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Cultivating Rice and Votes: Institutional Origins of Agricultural Protectionism in Japan” (with Jun Saito). Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 425-452, September-December 2010. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Reapportionment and Redistribution: Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan” (with Jun Saito). American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 47, Issue 4, pp. 669-682, October 2003. *Received the Alan Rosenthal Prize from the Legislative Studies Section of the American Political Science Association. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]

Political Methodology

• “Measuring Voters’ Multidimensional Policy Preferences with Conjoint Analysis: Application to Japan’s 2014 Election” (with Daniel Smith and Teppei Yamamoto). Political Analysis, Vol. 26, Issue 2, pp. 190-209, April 2018. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Should Candidates Smile to Win Elections?: An Application of Automated Face Recognition Technology” (with Tadashi Komatsu and Fumio Nakaya). Political Psychology, Vol. 33, Issue 6, pp. 925–933, December 2012. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
• “Designing and Analyzing Randomized Experiments: Application to a Japanese Election Survey Experiment” (with Kosuke Imai and Naoko Taniguchi). American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 51, Issue 3, pp. 669-687, July 2007. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]

• “Randomized Ballot Order Can Increase Invalid Votes: Evidence from Australia” [SSRN]
• “Electoral Redistricting and the Personal Vote under the Mixed-Member Electoral System: New Evidence from New Zealand” (with Matthew Shugart and Jack Vowles)

Also, see:

Political Methodology

• “Winning Elections with Unpopular Policies: Understanding Single-Party Dominance in Japan” (with Shusei Eshima, Shiro Kuriwaki, and Daniel M. Smith)

Also, see: 

Japanese Politics

• Institutions, Incentives and Electoral Participation in Japan: Cross-Level and Cross-National Perspectives

• “Why the Republican Party should pray for rain this November’‘ (with Woo Chang Kang). The London School of Economics and Political Science, The LSE US Centre’s daily blog on American Politics and Policy, June 25, 2018.
• “Buyer’s remorse in Chilean elections?” (with John Carey). The Washington Post, The Monkey Cage, November 10, 2013.

Also, see:

Japanese Politics

• “実験政治学で分析する選挙と事件　正確な報道こそが陰謀論なくす” [Elections and Incidents Analyzed by Experimental Political Science: Accurate Reporting Eliminates Conspiracy Theories]. Nikkei Business, August 1, 2022.
• “事件と選挙と報道　データに基づく政治学” [Incidents, Elections, and the Press: Data-based Political Science]. Nikkei Business Online, July 13, 2022.
• “マーケティング視点の政治学　なぜ自民党は勝ち続けるのか” [Political Science from a Marketing Perspective: Why the LDP Keeps Winning]. Nikkei Business, December 27, 2021.
• “マニフェスト選挙を疑え：2021年総選挙の計量政治学” [Doubt the ‘Manifesto Election’: Quantitative Analysis of the 2021 General Election]. Nikkei Business Online, December 8, 2021.
• “Detecting Electoral Fraud in Japan.” East Asia Forum, April 18, 2015.
• “衆議院総選挙、緊急解析！データが明らかにした有権者の本音” [Urgent Analysis of General Elections!~Voters’ True Preferences Revealed by Data] (with Dan Smith, Teppei Yamamoto, and Mayumi Fukushima). Nikkei Business Online, December 19, 2014.
• “やばい政治学：データで分かる政治の裏表” [Data Analysis of Politics Revealing Hidden Problems] (with Kentaro Fukumoto), Nikkei Business Online, June 5, June 12, June 19, June 26, July 3, 2012.
• “選挙前の不正な住民票移動の真相に迫る” [Getting to the Bottom of the Pre-electoral Illegal Residential Registration]. Nikkei Business Online, December 19, 2011.