PROJECT INFO.
- KEYWORDS: electoral reform, local politics, economic growth, electoral fraud, etc.
- COLLABORATORS: Atushi Tago, Daniel M. Smith, Jun Saito, etc.
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HIGHLIGHTS:
- "America's Role in the Making of Japan's Economic Miracle" (with Michael Beckley and Jennifer M. Miller). Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 18, Issue 1, pp. 1-21, March 2018.
- “Making Outsiders’ Votes Count: Detecting Electoral Fraud through a Natural Experiment” (with Kentaro Fukumoto). American Political Science Review, Vol. 105, Issue 3, pp. 586-603, August 2011.
- “Reapportionment and Redistribution: Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan” (with Jun Saito). American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 47, Issue 4, pp. 669-682, October 2003.
Published Articles
- “U.S. Military Should Not Be in My Backyard: Conjoint Experiments in Japan” (with Atsushi Tago). Journal of Conflict Resolution 68(9): 1798-1824. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “Social Contact and Attitudes toward Outsiders: The Case of Japan” (with Yoshikuni Ono). Research & Politics 10(1), January 2023. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “Revisiting Negative Externalities of U.S. Military Bases: The Case of Okinawa” (with Takako Hikotani and Atsushi Tago). International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, Vol. 23, Issue 2, pp. 325-349, May 2023. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “Susceptibility to Threatening Information and Opposition to Refugee Resettlement: The Case of Japan” (with Yoshikuni Ono). Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 60, Issue 3, pp. 459-473, May 2023. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “Young Citizens’ Civic Engagement and Civic Attitudes: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis” (with Hiroto Katsumata and Ethan Woodard). Political Behavior, Vol. 45, pp. 265-284, March 2023. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package] [SharedIt]
- “Country Risks and Brain Drain: The Emigration Potential of Japanese Skilled Workers” (with Nana Oishi). Social Science Japan Journal, Vol. 25, Issue 1, pp. 55-82, Winter 2022. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “Identifying Voter Preferences for Politicians’ Personal Attributes: A Conjoint Experiment in Japan” (with Daniel Smith and Teppei Yamamoto). Political Science Research and Methods, Vol. 8, Issue 1, pp. 75-91, January 2020. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “America’s Role in the Making of Japan’s Economic Miracle” (with Michael Beckley and Jennifer M. Miller). Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 18, Issue 1, pp. 1-21, March 2018. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “No Sorting, No Advantage: Regression Discontinuity Estimates of Incumbency Advantage in Japan” (with Kenichi Ariga, Roland Mansilla, and Michio Umeda). Electoral Studies, Vol. 43, pp. 21-31, September 2016. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “Removing Boundaries, Losing Connections: Electoral Consequences of Local Government Reform in Japan” (with Jun Saito and Kyohei Yamada). Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 15, No 1, pp. 99-125, January-April 2015. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “Making Outsiders’ Votes Count: Detecting Electoral Fraud through a Natural Experiment” (with Kentaro Fukumoto). American Political Science Review, Vol. 105, Issue 3, pp. 586-603, August 2011. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “Cultivating Rice and Votes: Institutional Origins of Agricultural Protectionism in Japan” (with Jun Saito). Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 425-452, September-December 2010. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “Understanding Japanese Politics from a Local Perspective.” International Political Science Review, Vol. 30, No. 5, pp. 565-573, November 2009. [SSRN] [DOI] * There is no replication package for this paper.
- “Reapportionment and Redistribution: Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan” (with Jun Saito). American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 47, Issue 4, pp. 669-682, October 2003. *Received the Alan Rosenthal Prize from the Legislative Studies Section of the American Political Science Association. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
Also, see:
Foreign/Global Public Opinion
- “Does Russian Election Interference Damage Support for U.S. Alliances? The Case of Japan” (with Benjamin E. Goldsmith). European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 29, Issue 2, pp. 427–448, June 2023. [SSRN] [SocArXiv] [DOI] [Replication Package] [Press Release]
- “Has Trump Damaged the U.S. Image Abroad? Decomposing the Effects of Policy Messages on Foreign Public Opinion” (with Alexander Agadjanian). Political Behavior, Vol. 42, pp. 581-602, June 2020. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package] [Press Release]
Elections
- “Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment of Political Budget Cycle” (with Kentaro Fukumoto and Shoichiro Tanaka). Electoral Studies, Vol. 67, October 2020. [SSRN][DOI][Replication Package]
- “Identifying the Effect of Mobilization on Voter Turnout through a Natural Experiment” (with Kentaro Fukumoto). Electoral Studies, Vol. 44, pp. 192-202, December 2016. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
Political Methodology
- “Measuring Voters’ Multidimensional Policy Preferences with Conjoint Analysis: Application to Japan’s 2014 Election” (with Daniel Smith and Teppei Yamamoto). Political Analysis, Vol. 26, Issue 2, pp. 190-209, April 2018. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
- “Designing and Analyzing Randomized Experiments: Application to a Japanese Election Survey Experiment” (with Kosuke Imai and Naoko Taniguchi). American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 51, Issue 3, pp. 669-687, July 2007. [SSRN] [DOI] [Replication Package]
Other Topics
- “Workshops Without Borders: Building an Online Community of Japan Scholars” (with Amy Catalinac, Charles Crabtree, Christina L. Davis, Shinju Fujihira, Phillip Y. Lipscy, Frances McCall Rosenbluth, and Daniel M. Smith). PS: Political Science & Politics, forthcoming. [DOI]
Working Papers
- “The Myth of Japanese Pacifism: Public Support for Japan’s High-Risk Military Operation during Afghanistan Evacuation” (with Atsushi Tago). [SSRN] – Under Review
- “Winning Elections with Unpopular Policies: Valence Advantage and Single-Party Dominance in Japan” (with Shusei Eshima, Shiro Kuriwaki, and Daniel M. Smith). [SSRN] – Under Review
Work in Progress
- “The Pretty Pragmatic Public: Japanese Public Opinion about Security Policies” (with Atsushi Tago) — A book manuscript in preparation
- “Disclosing Invisible Attributes is Subject to Discrimination: Conjoint Analysis” (with Kai Zhou)
Book
1st Edition
Institutions, Incentives and Electoral Participation in Japan
Cross-Level and Cross-National Perspectives
- 2005 Routledge
- ISBN: 9780415648592
Book Description
American and European political scientists have claimed that subnational elections almost always record lower voter turnout than national elections. In Japan, however, municipal elections often record considerably higher turnout than national elections, particularly in small towns and villages. Institutions, Incentives and Electoral Participation in Japan theoretically and empirically explores this puzzling ‘turnout twist’ phenomenon from comparative perspectives. Based on the rational-choice approach, the book hypothesizes that relative voter turnout in subnational vs. national elections is determined by the relative magnitudes of how much is at stake (‘election significance’) and how much votes count (‘vote significance’) in these elections.
Reviews
‘Unquestionably a major contribution to the literature on political participation … an important work in comparative politics.’ – Japanese Journal of Political Science
Media
- “実験政治学で分析する選挙と事件 正確な報道こそが陰謀論なくす” [Elections and Incidents Analyzed by Experimental Political Science: Accurate Reporting Eliminates Conspiracy Theories]. Nikkei Business, August 1, 2022.
- “事件と選挙と報道 データに基づく政治学” [Incidents, Elections, and the Press: Data-based Political Science]. Nikkei Business Online, July 13, 2022.
- “マーケティング視点の政治学 なぜ自民党は勝ち続けるのか” [Political Science from a Marketing Perspective: Why the LDP Keeps Winning]. Nikkei Business, December 27, 2021.
- “外交・安保政策の針路（下）世論の的確な把握 大前提” [The Path Forward for Foreign and Security Policy (2) Accurate Understanding of Public Opinion is a Prerequisite] (with Atsushi Tago). Nihon Keizai Shimbun, December 10, 2021.
- “マニフェスト選挙を疑え：2021年総選挙の計量政治学” [Doubt the ‘Manifesto Election’: Quantitative Analysis of the 2021 General Election]. Nikkei Business Online, December 8, 2021.
- “Detecting Electoral Fraud in Japan.” East Asia Forum, April 18, 2015.
- “衆議院総選挙、緊急解析！データが明らかにした有権者の本音” [Urgent Analysis of General Elections! Voters’ True Preferences Revealed by Data] (with Dan Smith, Teppei Yamamoto, and Mayumi Fukushima). Nikkei Business Online, December 19, 2014.
- “やばい政治学：データで分かる政治の裏表” [Data Analysis of Politics Revealing Hidden Problems] (with Kentaro Fukumoto), Nikkei Business Online, June 5, June 12, June 19, June 26, July 3, 2012.
- “選挙前の不正な住民票移動の真相に迫る” [Getting to the Bottom of the Pre-electoral Illegal Residential Registration]. Nikkei Business Online, December 19, 2011.
- “市町村合併、政治的問題も” [Political Problems of Municipal Amalgamation] (with Masaru Kohno). Nihon Keizai Shimbun, December 23, 2003.
Also, see:
Foreign Public Opinion
- “Since Trump’s election, the U.S. image abroad has plummeted. But is it really just about Trump?” (with Alexander Agadjanian). The Washington Post, The Monkey Cage, December 19, 2018.